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Mitch McConnell is right. Senate Republicans have a candidate problem.

By Amanda Caroline  •  August 21, 2022  •  44

We've become used to displays of braggadocio by politicians (see former President Donald Trump). That's why it's notable when a politician admits that the political winds might not be going their way.

Such was the case when Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell said this week that Republicans had a better chance of taking back the House than the Senate. "Candidate quality has a lot to do with [it]," he noted.
McConnell's comments are where we begin our roundup of the news of the week that was.

Disliked candidates could cost Republicans the Senate

Democrats' chances of holding the Senate didn't look so great when 2022 began. They weren't in as bad of shape as they were in the House (as is still the case), but they were clear underdogs.
Today, an average of different forecasts and political betting odds indicate that Democrats are slightly favored to hold on to Congress' upper chamber. The change in Senate fortune comes as the party continues to poll far better than expected in a number of states while several Republican candidates struggle to connect with the voters.
Recent polls from Arizona and Wisconsin are a case in point. President Joe Biden won both states in 2020 by less than a point, four years after voters there backed Trump. Republicans should be in a strong position in these states, if 2022 featured the normal midterm backlash against the president's party.
Instead, the Democratic candidates (Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin) have led in all the polls. In Arizona, Kelly was up 8 points over Republican Blake Masters in a Fox poll. In Wisconsin, Barnes was ahead by 7 points in a Marquette University Law School poll and by 4 points in a Fox poll over Republican Sen. Ron Johnson.
The results were especially noteworthy because in all those polls, Biden was underwater in his net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable).
The reason Democrats were ahead in both states was in large part because the Republican candidates were also underwater. Masters' net favorability rating was -4 points, while Johnson's were -6 and -9 points in the Fox and Marquette polls respectively.

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